PARIS REINFORCE draws from a strong core of numerous integrated assessment models (IAMs), consisting of computable general equilibrium IAMs (GEMINI-E3 and ICES), partial equilibrium IAMs (GCAM and TIAM), economic growth IAMs (DICE), and macroeconometric models (E3ME, and NEMESIS), further coupled with energy system models (MUSE, LEAP, NATEM, MAPLE, 42, TIMES-CAC, EU-TIMES, and MARKAL-India) and sectoral models (CONTO, SISGEMA, ALADIN, and FORECAST).
This central and cross-cutting module of models orients on different, complementary modelling perspectives and mathematical structures to enhance the understanding of uncertainties. It also provides complete geographic, economic/sectoral, energy and climate policy, and greenhouse gas emission (GHG) coverage. The diverse PARIS REINFORCE modelling ensembles furthermore feature the capacity to assess potential synergies, conflicts and other co-impacts with policies outside the strict climate policy context as well as with other SDGs.
Specifically, the project builds on and draws heavily from an ensemble of global IAMs to evaluate current contributions and action pledges and explore more ambitious pathways at all levels. The geographic scope of our approach captures the broader perspective needed for a fully informative account of climate action, taking into account different national perspectives. Lying at the heart of all economic activities, the energy system is the single most responsible driver of GHG emissions. IAM analyses will, therefore, be complemented by a group of energy system models covering all geographic scales of the project, to carry out detailed analyses of the existing and emerging technologies and contribute to the research and discussion on negative emissions, which will have a key role to play in realising long-term visions. Finally, other sectoral models will also be used to examine climate action in the industrial, LULUCF, transportation and building sectors, both in the EU and other major emitters, and inform global IAM scenarios.
The climate-economy, energy system and sectoral models of the project will be integrated into the I2AM PARIS platform, enabling fully harmonised input (datasets, scenarios, assumptions) and output as well as meaningful model inter-comparisons.