Koutsellis, T., Xexakis, G., Koasidis, K., Nikas, A., & Doukas, H. (2022). Parameter analysis for sigmoid and hyperbolic transfer functions of fuzzy cognitive maps. Operational Research, in press.
Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) have recently gained ground in many climate policy studies, mainly because they allow stakeholder engagement in reduced-form complex systems representation and modelling. They provide a pictorial form of systems, consisting of nodes (concepts) and node interconnections (weights), and perform system simulations for various input combinations. Due to their simplicity and quasi-quantitative nature, they can be easily used with and by non-experts.
Koasidis, K., Nikas, A., Karamaneas, A., Saulo, M., Tsipouridis, I., Campagnolo, L., Gambhir, A., Van de Ven, D.-J., McWilliams, B., & Doukas, H. (2022). Climate and sustainability co-governance in Kenya: A multi-criteria analysis of stakeholders' perceptions and consensus. Energy for Sustainable Development, 68, 457-471.
The Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development embody highly intertwined targets to act for climate in conjunction with sustainable development. This, however, entails different meanings and challenges across the world. Kenya, in particular, needs to address serious sustainability threats, like poverty and lack of modern and affordable energy access.
Song, S., Lin, H., Sherman, P., Yang, X., Chen, S., Lu, X., ... & McElroy, M. B. (2022). Deep Decarbonization of the Indian Economy: 2050 Prospects for Wind, Solar, and Green Hydrogen. iScience, 104399.
The paper explores options for a 2050 carbon free energy future for India. Onshore wind and solar sources are projected as the dominant primary contributions to this objective. The analysis envisages an important role for so-called green hydrogen produced by electrolysis fueled by these carbon free energy sources. This hydrogen source can be used to accommodate for the intrinsic variability of wind and solar complementing opportunities for storage of power by batteries and pumped hydro.
Burke, J., & Gambhir, A. (2022). Policy incentives for Greenhouse Gas Removal Techniques: the risks of premature inclusion in carbon markets and the need for a multi-pronged policy framework. Energy and Climate Change, 3, 100074.
Almost all modelled emissions scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement's target of limiting global temperature increase to well below two degrees include the use of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) techniques. Despite the prevalence of GGR in Paris-consistent scenarios, and indeed the UK's own net-zero target, there is a paucity of regulatory support for emerging GGR techniques..
Babonneau, F., & Vielle, M. (2022). A post-COVID-19 economic assessment of the Chilean NDC revision. Climate Change Economics, in press.
Last year, Chile updated its Nationally Determined Contributions, moving from intensity-based emissions reductions to an effective emissions target. This paper aims to assess the economic and environmental impacts of this change in the current context of high uncertainty Chile faces with social protests and the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3, we performed a sensitivity analysis assuming different levels of economic growth through 2030.
Doukas, H., Arsenopoulos, A., Lazoglou, M., Nikas, A., & Flamos, A. (2022). Wind repowering: Unveiling a hidden asset. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 162, 112457.
Given the abundant availability of resources, the market potential, and their cost competitiveness, onshore wind farms and photovoltaic units are expected to drive the overall growth of renewable energy sources in the next decade. However, Europe is a small and densely populated continent, which results in many countries experiencing a severe shortage of suitable land sites for installing new wind and photovoltaic facilities.
Speth, D., Plötz, P., Funke, S., & Vallarella, E. (2022). Public fast charging infrastructure for battery electric trucks – a model-based network for Germany. Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability. In press.
Globally, road freight accounts for 40% of the CO2 emissions in the transport sector, mainly from heavy-duty vehicles (HDV). All the major truck markets have introduced fuel efficiency regulations for HDV, and the more ambitious regulations require the introduction of zero-emission HDV, for which battery electric trucks (BEV) are a promising candidate. However, frequent long-distance trips require a dense public high-power charging network if BEV are to meet today's operating schedules in logistics.
Edelenbosch, O. Y., Miu, L., Sachs, J., Hawkes, A., & Tavoni, M. (2022). Translating observed household energy behavior to agent-based technology choices in an integrated modeling framework. Iscience, 25(3), 103905.
Decarbonizing the building sector depends on choices made at the household level, which are heterogeneous. Agent-based models are tools used to describe heterogeneous choices but require data-intensive calibration. This study analyzes a novel, cross-country European household-level survey, including sociodemographic characteristics, energy-saving habits, energy-saving investments, and metered household electricity consumption, to enhance the empirical grounding of an agent-based residential energy choice model.
Koasidis, K., Nikas, A., Daniil, V., Kanellou, E., & Doukas, H. (2022). A multi-criteria decision support framework for assessing seaport sustainability planning: the case of Piraeus. Maritime Policy & Management, in press.
Seaports will play a pivotal role in the low-carbon transition of maritime shipping, the policy landscape in which is currently being shaped. In this context, we introduce a multi-criteria decision support framework for seaport sustainability planning, to identify the competitiveness of interventions under uncertainty and evaluate the direction of the sector’s policy context in terms of required actions.
Parris, H., Sorman, A. H., Valor, C., Tuerk, A., & Anger-Kraavi, A. (2022). Cultures of transformation: An integrated framework for transformative action. Environmental Science & Policy, 132, 24-34.
The challenges posed by climate change have generated many initiatives that seek to implement societal transformations. In most cases, these focus on technology developments, adoption and diffusion but neglect the social and cultural dimensions of a transformation. Insights from systems and behavioural sciences can provide valuable guidance on these aspects, but the utility of this literature is limited by two factors.
Plötz, P. (2022). Hydrogen technology is unlikely to play a major role in sustainable road transport. Nature Electronics, 5, 8–10.
Technical and economic developments in battery and fast-charging technologies could soon make fuel cell electric vehicles, which run on hydrogen, superfluous in road transport.
Wilgosh, B., Sorman, A. H., & Barcena, I. (2022). When two movements collide: learning from labour and environmental struggles for future Just Transitions. Futures, 137, 102903.
The term ‘Just Transition’ (JT) emerged from the 1970s North American labour movement to become a campaign for a planned energy transition that includes justice and fairness for workers. There is diversity in the JT narratives and ambitions that different actors put forward regarding its aims and strategies.
Koasidis K., Karamaneas A., Kanellou E., Neofytou H., Nikas A., & Doukas H. (2022). Towards Sustainable Development and Climate Co-governance: A Multicriteria Stakeholders’ Perspective. Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Sustainable Development. Multiple Criteria Decision Making. Springer, Cham.
Although 2015 featured the adoption of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, broken down into 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs), the year is mostly remembered for the global climate targets of the Paris Agreement. Seemingly two separate agendas, sustainable development and climate action are highly intertwined: the former is an explicit part of the Paris Agreement, while the latter constitutes one of the 17 goals.
Nikas, A., Koasidis, K., Koberle, A.C., Kourtesi, G., & Doukas, H. (2022). A comparative study of biodiesel in Brazil and Argentina: An integrated systems of innovation perspective. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 156, 112022.
Transport is among the sectors highly dependent on fossil fuels, relying almost exclusively on petroleum products. Biofuels have been suggested as a technology contributing to the sector's decarbonisation, especially in sub-sectors where upscaling electrification innovation is challenging. Brazil and Argentina have long been top biofuel producers.
Koasidis, K., Marinakis, V., Nikas, A., Chira, K., Flamos, A., & Doukas, H. (2022). Monetising behavioural change as a policy measure to support energy management in the residential sector: A case study in Greece. Energy Policy, 161, 112759.
Energy efficiency from behavioural changes will play a key role in meeting future climate targets. Current energy management actions, however, are still dominated by conventional interventions. Furthermore, demand-side transformations based on behavioural actions are hitherto underrepresented in modelling scenarios informing climate policy. In this context, this study aims to explore whether monetisation of behavioural change should be considered as a policy measure to support energy management in the residential sector.
Gambhir, A., George, M., McJeon, H., Arnell, N.W., Bernie, D., Mittal, S., Köberle, A.C., Lowe, J., Rogelj, J., Monteith, S. (2022). Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways. Nature Climate Change, 12, 88-96.
Policy, business, finance and civil society stakeholders are increasingly looking to compare future emissions pathways across both their associated physical climate risks stemming from increasing temperatures and their transition climate risks stemming from the shift to a low-carbon economy.
Nikas, A., Xexakis, G., Koasidis, K., Acosta-Fernández, J., Arto, I., Calzadilla, A., Domenech, T., Gambhir, A., Giljum, S., Gonzalez-Eguino, M., Herbst, A., Ivanova, O., van Sluisveld, M.A.E., van de Ven, D.-J., Karamaneas, A., & Doukas, H. (2022). Coupling circularity performance and climate action: from disciplinary silos to transdisciplinary modelling science. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 30, 269-277.
Technological breakthroughs and policy measures targeting energy efficiency and clean energy alone will not suffice to deliver Paris Agreement-compliant greenhouse gas emissions trajectories in the next decades. Strong cases have recently been made for acknowledging the decarbonisation potential lying in transforming linear economic models into closed-loop industrial ecosystems and in shifting lifestyle patterns towards this direction.
Cain, M., Jenkins, S., Allen, M.R., Lynch, J., Frame, D.J., Macey, A.H., & Peters, G.P. (2022). Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 380, 20200456.
Meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goal necessitates limiting methane (CH4)-induced warming, in addition to achieving net-zero or (net-negative) carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In our model, for the median 1.5°C scenario between 2020 and 2050, CH4 mitigation lowers temperatures by 0.1°C; CO2 increases it by 0.2°C. CO2 emissions continue increasing global mean temperature until net-zero emissions are reached, with potential for lowering temperatures with net-negative emissions.
Sognnaes, I., Gambhir, A., Van de Ven, D.J., Nikas, A., Anger-Kraavi, A., Bui, H., Campagnolo, L., Delpiazzo, E., Doukas, H., Giarola, S., Grant, N., Hawkes, A., Koberle, A.C., Kolpakov, A., Mittal, S., Moreno, J., Perdana, S., Rogelj, J., Vielle, M., & Peters, G.P. (2021). A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts. Nature Climate Change, 11, 1055-1062.
Most of the integrated assessment modelling literature focuses on cost-effective pathways towards given temperature goals. Conversely, using seven diverse integrated assessment models, we project global energy CO2 emissions trajectories on the basis of near-term mitigation efforts and two assumptions on how these efforts continue post-2030.
Grant, N., Hawkes, A., Napp, T., & Gambhir, A. (2021). Cost reductions in renewables can substantially erode the value of carbon capture and storage in mitigation pathways. One Earth, 4(11), 1588-1601.
Köberle, A.C., Vandyck, T., Guivarch, C., Macaluso, N., Bosetti, V., Gambhir, A., Tavoni, M., & Rogelj, J. (2021). The cost of mitigation revisited. Nature Climate Change, 11, 1035-1045.
Estimates of economic implications of climate policy are important inputs into policy-making. Despite care to contextualize quantitative assessments of mitigation costs, one strong view outside academic climate economics is that achieving Paris Agreement goals implies sizable macroeconomic losses. Here, we argue that this notion results from unwarranted simplification or omission of the complexities of quantifying mitigation costs, which generates ambiguity in communication and interpretation.
Grant, N., Hawkes, A., Mittal, S., & Gambhir, A. (2021). The policy implications of an uncertain carbon dioxide removal potential. Joule, 5(10), 2593-2605.
Many low-carbon scenarios rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to meet decarbonization goals. The feasibility of large-scale CDR deployment is highly uncertain, and existing scenarios have been criticized for overreliance on CDR. We conduct an expert survey on the feasible potential for CDR via bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture and afforestation. We use the survey results to represent uncertainty in future CDR availability and explore the implications in an integrated assessment model.
Mohan, A., Geden, O., Fridahl, M., Buck, H. J., & Peters, G. P. (2021). UNFCCC must confront the political economy of net-negative emissions. One Earth, 4(10), 1348-1351.
Recent demands by developing countries, like India, that developed countries need to reach net-negative emissions, must be negotiated seriously under the UNFCCC. Failure to acknowledge that limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5°C leaves very little carbon budget for equitable redistribution risks further ambiguity on how to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals.
Breed, A. K., Speth, D., & Plötz, P. (2021). CO2 fleet regulation and the future market diffusion of zero-emission trucks in Europe. Energy Policy, 159, 112640.
Fuel economy regulation is a powerful instrument to reduce CO2 emissions of vehicles and has recently been extended to heavy-duty vehicles. In Europe, truck manufacturers are required to reduce the CO2 emissions of newly sold vehicles by 30% until 2030 compared to 2019/2020. Accordingly, several manufacturers have announced the introduction of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) such as battery electric or fuel cell trucks. However, the sales shares of zero emission trucks to meet the targets have not been analyzed in the literature yet.
Nikas, A., Skalidakis, S., Sorman, A. H., Galende-Sanchez, E., Koasidis, K., Serepas, F., Van de Ven, D.J., Moreno, J., Karamaneas, A., Koutsellis, T., Kanellou, E., & Doukas, H. (2021). Integrating integrated assessment modelling in support of the Paris Agreement: The I2AM PARIS platform. In 2021 12th International Conference on Information, Intelligence, Systems & Applications (IISA) (pp. 1-8). IEEE.
Joshi, S., Mittal, S., Holloway, P., Ramprasad Shukla, P., Ó Gallachóir, B., & Glynn, J. (2021). High resolution global spatiotemporal assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential for renewable electricity generation. Nature Communications 12, 5738.
Rooftop solar photovoltaics currently account for 40% of the global solar photovoltaics installed capacity and one-fourth of the total renewable capacity additions in 2018. Yet, only limited information is available on its global potential and associated costs at a high spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we present a high-resolution global assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential using big data, machine learning and geospatial analysis.
van de Ven, D. J., Westphal, M., Gonzalez‐Eguino, M., Gambhir, A., Peters, G., Sognnaes, I., ... & Clarke, L. The impact of US re‐engagement in climate on the Paris targets. Earth's Future, 9(9), e2021EF002077.
The Paris Agreement seeks to combine international efforts to keep global temperature increase to well-below 2°C. Whilst current ambitions in many signatories are insufficient to achieve this goal, optimism prevailed in the second half of 2020. Not only did several major emitters announce net-zero mitigation targets around mid-century, but the new Biden Administration immediately announced the U.S.’s re-entry into Paris and a net-zero goal for 2050. U.S.
Mandev, A., Plötz, P., & Sprei, F. (2021). The effect of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle charging on fuel consumption and tail-pipe emissions. Environmental Research Communications, 3(8), 081001.
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) have an electric motor and an internal combustion engine and can reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from transport. However, their environmental benefit strongly depends on the charging behaviour. Several studies have analysed the GHG emissions from upstream electricity production, yet the impact of individual charging behaviour on PHEV tail-pipe carbon emissions has not been quantified from empirical data so far.
Marinakis, V., Koutsellis, T., Nikas, A., & Doukas, H. (2021). AI and Data Democratisation for Intelligent Energy Management. Energies, 14(14), 4341.
Stoddard, I., Anderson, K., Capstick, S., Carton, W., Depledge, J., Facer, K., ... & Williams, M. (2021). Three Decades of Climate Mitigation: Why Haven't We Bent the Global Emissions Curve?. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 46.
Despite three decades of political efforts and a wealth of research on the causes and catastrophic impacts of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions have continued to rise and are 60% higher today than they were in 1990. Exploring this rise through nine thematic lenses—covering issues of climate governance, the fossil fuel industry, geopolitics, economics, mitigation modeling, energy systems, inequity, lifestyles, and social imaginaries—draws out multifaceted reasons for our collective failure to bend the global emissions curve.
Li, R., Perdana, S., & Vielle, M. (2021). Potential integration of Chinese and European emissions trading market: welfare distribution analysis. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 26(22).
Central to the aims of the Paris Agreement, an integrated carbon market could potentially be a practical bottom-up option for effective and efficient mitigation. This paper quantifies the welfare effects of integration of Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) between the European Union (EU) and China. Using the European version of the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3, our assessment reveals that integrating trading markets benefits both regions through the decrease welfare costs from abatements.
Nikas, A., Elia, A., Boitier, B., Koasidis, K., Doukas, H., Cassetti, G., Anger-Kraavi, A., Bui, H., Campagnolo, L., De Miglio, R., Delpiazzo, E., Fougeyrollas, A., Gambhir, A., Gargiulo, M., Giarola, S., Grant, N., Hawkes, A., Herbst, A., Köberle, A.C., Kolpakov, A., Le Mouël, P., McWilliams, B., Mittal, S., Moreno, J., Neuner, F., Perdana, S., Peter, G.P., Plötz, P., Rogelj, J., Sognnæs, I., Van de Ven, D.J., Vielle, M., Zachmann, G., Zagamé, P., & Chiodi, A. (2021). Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison. Science of the Total Environment, 793, 148549.
Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns.
Grant, N., Hawkes, A., Mittal, S., & Gambhir, A. (2021). Confronting mitigation deterrence in low-carbon scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 16, 064099.
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) features heavily in low-carbon scenarios, where it often substitutes for emission reductions in both the near-term and long-term, enabling temperature targets to be met at lower cost. There are major concerns around the scale of CDR deployment in many low-carbon scenarios, and the risk that anticipated future CDR could dilute incentives to reduce emissions now, a phenomenon known as mitigation deterrence.
Märtz, A., Plötz, P., & Jochem, P. (2021). Global perspective on CO2 emissions of electric vehicles. Environmental Research Letters, 16(5), 054043.
Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are a promising option for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the transport sector - especially when the fast decrease in carbon emissions from electricity provision is considered. The rapid uptake of renewable electricity generation worldwide implies an unprecedented change that affects the carbon content of electricity for battery production as well as charging and thus the GHG mitigation potential of PEV.
Yang, X., Lin, W., Gong, R., Zhu, M., & Springer, C. (2021). Transport decarbonization in big cities: An integrated environmental co-benefit analysis of vehicles purchases quota-limit and new energy vehicles promotion policy in Beijing. Sustainable Cities and Society, 71, 102976.
In the deep decarbonization era against climate change, big cities set ambitious targets for road transport. As China’s capital, Beijing has very strict vehicles quota-limit policies. This study contributes to the literature for its innovations on the evaluation of quota-limit executive policy for big cities which few studies have studied, and its improved method with integrated analysis model which distinguish itself for including future co-benefit estimation and enterprise-level data analysis.
Babonneau, F., Badran, A., Benlahrech, M., Haurie, A., Schenkery, M., & Vielle, M. (2021). Economic assessment of the development of CO2 direct reduction technologies in long-term climate strategies of the Gulf countries. Climatic Change, 165, 64.
This paper proposes an assessment of long-term climate strategies for oil- and gas-producing countries—in particular, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states—as regards the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the increase of surface air temperature to 2°C by the end of the twenty-first century. The study evaluates the possible role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies under an international emissions trading market as a way to mitigate welfare losses.
Doukas, H., Spiliotis, E., Jafari, M.A., Giarola, S., & Nikas, A. (2021). Low-cost emissions cuts in container shipping: Thinking inside the box. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 94, 102815.
Container shipping has become an emission-intensive industry; existing regulations, however, continue to display limitations. Technical emissions reduction measures require large, long-term investments, while operational measures may negatively impact transportation costs and supply-chain practices. For container shipping to become more sustainable, innovative, low-cost technological solutions are required. This study discusses such a technological game-changer which utilizes a lighter container type that, contrary to conventional ones, does not require wood in its floor.
Koutsandreas, D, Spiliotis, E, Doukas, H,, & Psarras, J. (2021). What is the Macroeconomic Impact of Higher Decarbonization Speeds? The Case of Greece. Energies, 14(8), 2235.
Giarola, S., Mittal, S., Vielle, M., Perdana, S., Campagnolo, L., Delpiazzo, E., Bui, H., Anger-Kraavi, A., Kolpakov, A., Sognnaes, I., Peters, G.P., Hawkes, A., Koberle, A., Grant, N., Gambhir, A., Nikas, A., Doukas, H., Moreno, J., & Van de Ven, D.J. (2021). Challenges in the harmonisation of global integrated assessment models: a comprehensive methodology to reduce model response heterogeneity. Science of the Total Environment, 783, 146861.
Harmonisation sets the ground to a solid inter-comparison of integrated assessment models. A clear and transparent harmonisation process promotes a consistent interpretation of the modelling outcomes divergences and, reducing the model variance, is instrumental to the use of integrated assessment models to support policy decision-making. Despite its crucial role for climate economic policies, the definition of a comprehensive harmonisation methodology for integrated assessment modelling remains an open challenge for the scientific community.
Lalas, D., Gakis, N., Mirasgedis, S., Georgopoulou, E., Sarafidis, Y., & Doukas, H. (2021). Energy and GHG Emissions Aspects of the COVID Impact in Greece. Energies, 14(7), 1955.
Le Quéré, C., Peters, G. P., Friedlingstein, P., Andrew, R. M., Canadell, J. G., Davis, S. J., ... & Jones, M. W. (2021). Fossil CO 2 emissions in the post-COVID-19 era. Nature Climate Change, 11(3), 197-199.
Five years after the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement, growth in global CO2 emissions has begun to falter. The pervasive disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic have radically altered the trajectory of global CO2 emissions. Contradictory effects of the post-COVID-19 investments in fossil fuel-based infrastructure and the recent strengthening of climate targets must be addressed with new policy choices to sustain a decline in global emissions in the post-COVID-19 era.
Galende-Sánchez, E., & Sorman, A. H. (2021). From consultation toward co-production in science and policy: A critical systematic review of participatory climate and energy initiatives. Energy Research & Social Science, 73, 101907.
In recent decades, co-production has become a cornerstone both in science and policy-making, motivating further collaboration between different actors. To scrutinize such participatory processes within the climate and energy fields, we conducted a critical systematic review of 183 records, which includes scientific publications, but also other initiatives coming from the public administration or the non-profit sector.
Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Peters, G. P., Janssens-Maenhout, G., De-Gol, A. J., Ciais, P., ... & Le Quéré, C. (2021). Gridded fossil CO2 emissions and related O2 combustion consistent with national inventories 1959–2018. Scientific Data, 8(1), 1-23.
Quantification of CO2 fluxes at the Earth’s surface is required to evaluate the causes and drivers of observed increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Atmospheric inversion models disaggregate observed variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration to variability in CO2 emissions and sinks. They require prior constraints fossil CO2 emissions.
Doukas, H., & Anger-Kraavi, A. (2020). Editorial of special issue on transdisciplinary science in energy transitions: thinking outside strictly formalized modeling boxes. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 15(10-12), 453-454.
This special issue is devoted to research that touches on such critical policy questions while enhancing the transparency and legitimacy of the scientific processes in support of climate policymaking, as well as introducing innovative frameworks that improve the robustness of modeling outcomes against different types of uncertainties.
Johansson, D. J., Azar, C., Lehtveer, M., & Peters, G. P. (2020). The role of negative carbon emissions in reaching the Paris climate targets: The impact of target formulation in integrated assessment models. Environmental Research Letters, 15(12), 124024.
Global net-negative carbon emissions are prevalent in almost all emission pathways that meet the Paris temperature targets. In this paper, we generate and compare cost-effective emission pathways that satisfy two different types of climate targets. First, the common approach of a radiative forcing target that has to be met by the year 2100 (RF2100), and, second, a temperature ceiling target that has to be met over the entire period, avoiding any overshoot.
Sorman, A. H., Turhan, E., & Rosas Casals, M. (2020). Democratizing energy, energizing democracy: Central dimensions surfacing in the debate. Frontiers in Energy Research, 8, 499888.
This perspective piece sets out to contribute to the academic and practitioner debates around energy transitions and democracy initiatives in the age of a climate crisis. For tackling present-day energy challenges in a democratic, equitable and just manner, critical social science and humanities research on meaning and materialities, new actors and narratives, values and democracy is indispensable.
Nikas A., Gambhir A., Trutnevyte E., Koasidis K., Lund H., Thellufsen J.Z., Mayer D., Zachmann G., Miguel L.J., Ferreras-Alonso N., Sognnaes I., Peters G.P., Colombo E., Howells M., Hawkes A., van den Broek M., Van de Ven D.J., Gonzalez-Eguino M., Flamos A., & Doukas H. (2021). Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe. Energy, 215, 119153.
Europe’s capacity to explore the envisaged pathways that achieve its near- and long-term energy and climate objectives needs to be significantly enhanced. In this perspective, we discuss how this capacity is supported by energy and climate-economy models, and how international modelling teams are organised within structured communication channels and consortia as well as coordinate multi-model analyses to provide robust scientific evidence.
Babonneau, F., Bahn, O., Haurie, A., & Vielle, M. (2021). An Oligopoly Game of CDR Strategy Deployment in a Steady-State Net-Zero Emission Climate Regime. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 26, 969-984.
In this paper, we propose a simple oligopoly game model to represent the interactions between coalitions of countries in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies in a steady-state net-zero emission climate regime that could take place by the end of the twenty-first century. The emission quotas and CDR activities obtained in the solution of this steady-state model could then be used as a target for end-of-period conditions in a dynamic integrated assessment analysis studying the transition to 2100.
Doukas, H., Nikas, A., Stamtsis, G., & Tsipouridis, I. (2020). The Green Versus Green Trap and a Way Forward. Energies, 13(20), 5473.
Massive deployment of renewables is considered as a decisive step in most countries’ climate efforts. However, at the local scale, it is also perceived by many as a threat to their rich and diverse natural environment. With this perspective, we argue that this green versus green pseudo-dilemma highlights how crucial a broad societal buy-in is. New, transparent, participatory processes and mechanisms that are oriented toward social licensing can now be employed.
Yang, X., Pang, J., Teng, F., Gong, R., & Springer, C. (2021). The environmental co-benefit and economic impact of China's low-carbon pathways: Evidence from linking bottom-up and top-down models. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 136, 110438.
Deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) can be cost-effective for carbon mitigation, but they also have environmental co-benefits and economic impacts that cannot be ignored. Despite many empirical studies on the co-benefits of NDCs at the national or sectoral level, there is lack of integrated assessment on DDPs for their energy, economic, and environmental impact. This is due to the limitations of bottom-up and top-down models when used alone. This paper aims to fill this gap and link the bottom-up MAPLE model with a top-down CGE model to evaluate China's DDPs' comprehensive impacts.
Labella, A., Koasidis, K., Nikas, A., Arsenopoulos, A., & Doukas, H. (2020). APOLLO: A Fuzzy Multi-criteria Group Decision Making Tool in Support of Climate Policy. International Journal of Computational Intelligence Systems, 13(1), 1539-1553.
Multi-criteria decision making is a daily process in everyday life, in which different alternatives are evaluated over a set of conflicting criteria. Decision making is becoming increasingly complex, and the apparition of uncertainty and vagueness is inevitable, especially when related to sustainability issues. To model such lack of information, decision makers often use linguistic information to express their opinions, closer to their way of thinking, giving place to linguistic decision making.
Koasidis, K., Nikas, A., Neofytou, H., Karamaneas, A., Gambhir, A., Wachsmuth, J., & Doukas, H. (2020). The UK and German Low-Carbon Industry Transitions from a Sectoral Innovation and System Failures Perspective. Energies, 13(19), 4994.
Industrial processes are associated with high amounts of energy consumed and greenhouse gases emitted, stressing the urgent need for low-carbon sectoral transitions. This research reviews the energy-intensive iron and steel, cement and chemicals industries of Germany and the United Kingdom, two major emitting countries with significant activity, yet with different recent orientation.
Nikas, A., Lieu, J., Sorman, A., Gambhir, A., Turhan, E., Baptista, B.V., & Doukas, H. (2020). The desirability of transitions in demand: Incorporating behavioural and societal transformations into energy modelling. Energy Research & Social Science, 70, 101780.
Quantitative systems modelling in support of climate policy has tended to focus more on the supply side in assessing interactions among technology, economy, environment, policy and society. By contrast, the demand side is usually underrepresented, often emphasising technological options for energy efficiency improvements. In this perspective, we argue that scientific support to climate action is not only about exploring capacity of “what”, in terms of policy and outcome, but also about assessing feasibility and desirability, in terms of “when”, “where” and especially for “whom”.
Fuss, S., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Jones, C. D., Lyngfelt, A., ... & Van Vuuren, D. P. (2020). Moving toward Net-Zero Emissions Requires New Alliances for Carbon Dioxide Removal. One Earth, 3(2), 145-149.
The 1.5°C target will require removing at least some of the carbon dioxide (CO2) previously emitted. Knowledge on how this can be done has been increasing, though barriers remain concerning governance, policy, and acceptability. For the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP26) to move beyond an academic debate on CO2 removal (CDR), a broader alliance of research and policy communities, industry, and the public is needed.
Forouli, A., Nikas, A., Van de Ven, D.-J., Sampedro, J. & Doukas, H. (2020). A multiple-uncertainty analysis framework for integrated assessment modelling of several sustainable development goals. Environmental Modelling & Software, 131, 104795.
This research introduces a two-level integration of climate-economy modelling and portfolio analysis, to simulate technological subsidisation with implications for multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), across socioeconomic trajectories and considering different levels of uncertainties. We use integrated assessment modelling outputs relevant for progress across three SDGs—namely air pollution-related mortality (SDG3), access to clean energy (SDG7) and greenhouse gas emissions (SDG13)—calculated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for different subsidy levels for six sustainable technologies, across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), feeding them into a portfolio analysis model. Optimal portfolios that are robust in the individual socioeconomic scenarios as well as across the socioeconomic scenarios are identified, by means of an SSP-robustness score. A second link between the two models is established, by feeding portfolio analysis results back into GCAM. Application in a case study for Eastern Africa confirms that most SSP-robust portfolios show smaller output ranges among scenarios.
Koasidis, K., Karamaneas, A., Nikas, A., Neofytou, H., Hermansen, E.A.T., Vaillancourt, K. & Doukas, H. (2020). Many Miles to Paris: A Sectoral Innovation System Analysis of the Transport Sector in Norway and Canada in Light of the Paris Agreement. Sustainability, 12, 5832.
Transport is associated with high amounts of energy consumed and greenhouse gases emitted. Most transport means operate using fossil fuels, creating the urgent need for a rapid transformation of the sector. In this research, we examine the transport systems of Norway and Canada, two countries with similar shares of greenhouse gas emissions from transport and powerful oil industries operating within their boundaries. Our socio-technical analysis, based on the Sectoral Innovation Systems approach, attempts to identify the elements enabling Norway to become one of the leaders in the diffusion of electric vehicles, as well as the differences pacing down progress in Canada. By utilising the System Failure framework to compare the two systems, bottlenecks hindering the decarbonisation of the two transport systems are identified. Results indicate that the effectiveness of Norway’s policy is exaggerated and has led to recent spillover effects towards green shipping. The activity of oil companies, regional and federal legislative disputes in Canada and the lack of sincere efforts from system actors to address challenges lead to non-drastic greenhouse gas emission reductions, despite significant policy efforts from both countries. Insights into the effectiveness of previously implemented policies and the evolution of the two sectoral systems can help draw lessons towards sustainable transport.
Neofytou, H., Nikas, A. & Doukas, H. (2020). Sustainable energy transition readiness: A multicriteria assessment index. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 131, 109988.
With climate change mainly originating from the extensive use of fossil fuels and having impacts on many aspects of life, changing the way energy is utilised constitutes a challenge that the world collectively must tackle. In this respect, all countries should implement a variety of measures focusing on energy efficiency and use of sustainable energy sources towards decarbonising their economies and achieving effective greenhouse gas emission reductions and sustainable development. Technological innovations, economic growth, societal compliance, and the regulatory and institutional frameworks constitute prominent factors that could promote, hinder or shape energy transitions as well as indicate the capacity of energy systems to be transformed. Therefore, investigating energy transitions and the extent to which countries are prepared to carry out such transitions requires the consideration of insights into multiple dimensions. This study outlines a multicriteria analysis framework to assess a country's sustainable energy transition readiness level, drawing from four pillars—social, political/regulatory, economic and technological—comprising a consistent set of eight evaluation criteria. The proposed decision analysis framework builds on the PROMETHEE II and AHP methods. Fourteen countries of different profile and level of progress towards sustainable development are evaluated and ranked, in an effort to highlight areas for improvement, and to support policymakers in designing appropriate pathways towards a greener economy.
Babacan, O., De Causmaecker, S., Gambhir, A., Fajardy, M., Rutherford, A.W., Fantuzzi, A. & Nelson, J. (2020). Assessing the feasibility of carbon dioxide mitigation options in terms of energy usage. Nature Energy, 5, 720-728.
Measures to mitigate the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) can vary substantially in terms of the energy required. Some proposed CO2 mitigation options involve energy-intensive processes that compromise their viability as routes to mitigation, especially if deployed at a global scale. Here we provide an assessment of different mitigation options in terms of their energy usage. We assess the relative effectiveness of several CO2 mitigation routes by calculating the energy cost of carbon abatement (kilowatt-hour spent per kilogram CO2-equivalent, or kWh kgCO2e–1) mitigated. We consider energy efficiency measures, decarbonizing electricity, heat, chemicals and fuels, and also capturing CO2 from air. Among the routes considered, switching to renewable energy technologies (0.05–0.53 kWh kgCO2e–1 mitigated) offer more energy-effective mitigation than carbon embedding or carbon removal approaches, which are more energy intensive (0.99–10.03 kWh kgCO2e–1 and 0.78–2.93 kWh kgCO2e–1 mitigated, respectively), whereas energy efficiency measures, such as improving building lighting, can offer the most energy-effective mitigation.
Grant, N., Hawkes, A., Napp, T., & Gambhir, A. (2020). The appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis. Nature Climate Change, 10, 605–610.
Comparing emissions scenarios is an essential part of mitigation analysis, as climate targets can be met in various ways with different economic, energy system and co-benefit implications. Typically, a central ‘reference scenario’ acts as a point of comparison, and often this has been a no policy baseline with no explicit mitigative action taken. The use of such baselines is under increasing scrutiny, raising a wider question around the appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis. In this Perspective, we assess three critical issues relevant to the use of reference scenarios, demonstrating how different policy contexts merit the use of different scenarios. We provide recommendations to the modelling community on best practice in the creation, use and communication of reference scenarios.
Nikas, A., Neofytou, H., Karamaneas, A., Koasidis, K., & Psarras, J. (2020) Sustainable and socially just transition to a post-lignite era in Greece: a multi-level perspective, Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 15(10-12), 543-544.
Lignite has long dominated Greece’s electricity system, boosting economic growth and energy security, given the abundant domestic resources. In line with its national and international commitments to climate action and sustainable development, the country is currently facing the urgent need to transform its energy system, overcome its technological lock-ins, and transition to a low-carbon economy.
Nikas, A., Fountoulakis, A., Forouli, A., & Doukas, H. (2022) A robust augmented ε-constraint method (AUGMECON-R) for finding exact solutions of multi-objective linear programming problems. Operational Research, 22, 1291–1332.
Systems can be unstructured, uncertain and complex, and their optimisation often requires operational research techniques. In this study, we introduce AUGMECON-R, a robust variant of the augmented ε-constraint algorithm, for solving multi-objective linear programming problems, by drawing from the weaknesses of AUGMECON 2, one of the most widely used improvements of the ε-constraint method.
Le Quéré, C., Jackson, R. B., Jones, M. W., Smith, A. J., Abernethy, S., Andrew, R. M., De-Gol, A., Willis, D. R., Shan, Y., Canadell, J. G., Friedlingstein, P., Creutzig, F., & Peters, G. (2020). Temporary reduction in daily global CO 2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement. Nature Climate Change, 10, 647–653.
Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO2 emissions during forced confinements.
van Vliet, O., Hanger, S., Nikas, A., Spijker, E., Carlsen, H., Doukas, H., & Lieu, J. (2020). The importance of stakeholders in scoping risk assessments—Lessons from low-carbon transitions. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions 35, 400-413.
Identifying the risks that could impact a low-carbon transition is a prerequisite to assessing and managing these risks. We systematically characterise risks associated with decarbonisation pathways in fifteen case studies conducted in twelve countries around the world. We find that stakeholders from business, government, NGOs, and others supplied some 40 % of these risk inputs, significantly widening the scope of risks considered by academics and experts.
Hausfather, Z., & Peters, G. P. (2020). Emissions–the ‘business as usual’story is misleading. Nature, 577, 618-620.
More than a decade ago, climate scientists and energy modellers made a choice about how to describe the effects of emissions on Earth’s future climate. That choice has had unintended consequences which today are hotly debated. With the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) moving into its final stages in 2020, there is now a rare opportunity to reboot.
Vielle, M. (2020). Navigating various flexibility mechanisms under European burden-sharing. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 22(2), 267-313.
In July 2016, the European Commission presented its proposal for a regulation to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in sectors not covered by the emissions trading system with regard to post-2020 binding targets. The proposal extends the burden-sharing framework designed in 2008. This new burden-sharing, called by the European Commission as the Effort Sharing Regulation, is based on a GDP per capita rule and aims to reflect the economic capacity of each European Member State on the basis of its relative wealth.
Gramkow, C., & Anger-Kraavi, A. (2019). Developing Green: A Case for the Brazilian Manufacturing Industry. Sustainability, 11(23), 6783.
The recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5 °C emphasizes that rapid action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is vital to achieving the climate mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement. The most-needed substantial upscaling of investments in GHG mitigation options in all sectors, and particularly in manufacturing sectors, can be an opportunity for a green economic development leap in developing countries.
Song, L., Lieu, J., Nikas, A., Arsenopoulos, A., Vasileiou, G., & Doukas, H. (2020). Contested energy futures, conflicted rewards? Examining low-carbon transition risks and governance dynamics in China's built environment. Energy Research & Social Science, 59, 101306.
China's urbanisation has caused city populations to grow rapidly, boosting continuous development and scaling up the construction industry more intensely. The building sector is thus a key area to consider for climate change mitigation efforts. This study initially seeks to explore the development of a green transition pathway for the Chinese building sector, informed by national and local low-carbon policies and strategies, with specific references to Beijing and Shanghai. Acknowledging that the barriers and impacts of these policies have not been explored in depth and in consideration of the multiplicity of stakeholder views, we then set out to collect stakeholders’ perspectives of implementation and consequential risks associated with the envisaged transition and with the policies aiming to promote this transition. These concerns are evaluated in a multiple-criteria group decision making approach. By focusing on the resulting most critical implementation barriers, we then outline five plausible socioeconomic scenarios, against which we simulate the impacts of the considered policy strategies on the low-carbon transition of the Chinese built environment as well the extent of their key possible negative consequences, by means of fuzzy cognitive maps.
Van de Ven, D. J., Sampedro, J., Johnson, F. X., Bailis, R., Forouli, A., Nikas, A., ... & Doukas, H. (2019). Integrated policy assessment and optimisation over multiple sustainable development goals in Eastern Africa. Environmental Research Letters, 14(9), 094001.
Heavy reliance on traditional biomass for household energy in eastern Africa has significant negative health and environmental impacts. The African context for energy access is rather different from historical experiences elsewhere as challenges in achieving energy access have coincided with major climate ambitions. Policies focusing on household energy needs in eastern Africa contribute to at least three sustainable development goals (SDGs): climate action, good health, and improved energy access. This study uses an integrated assessment model to simulate the impact of land policies and technology subsidies, as well as the interaction of both, on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, exposure to air pollution and energy access in eastern Africa under a range of socioeconomic pathways. We find that land policies focusing on increasing the sustainable output of biomass resources can reduce GHG emissions in the region by about 10%, but also slightly delay progress in health and energy access goals. An optimised portfolio of energy technology subsidies consistent with a global Green Climate Funds budget of 30–35 billion dollar, can yield another 10% savings in GHG emissions, while decreasing mortality related to air pollution by 20%, and improving energy access by up to 15%. After 2030, both land and technology policies become less effective, and more dependent on the overall development path of the region. The analysis shows that support for biogas technology should be prioritised in both the short and long term, while financing liquefied petroleum gas and ethanol technologies also has synergetic climate, health and energy access benefits. Instead, financing PV technologies is mostly relevant for improving energy access, while charcoal and to a lesser extend fuelwood technologies are relevant for curbing GHG emissions if their finance is linked to land policies. We suggest that integrated policy analysis is needed in the African context for simultaneously reaching progress in multiple SDGs.