Scientific publications
Parris, H., Anger-Kraavi, A., & Peters, G.P. (2023). Does a change in the ‘global net zero’ language matter?. Global Sustainability, in press.
Changes in language used in long term climate policy can undermine their credibility and discourage climate action. Previous IPCC reports have promoted an idea of reaching ‘global net zero’ (GNZ) emissions by 2050 in order to limit global warming to 1.5oC. In the latest IPCC Report this language has been changed. To understand the impact of this change, we survey COP 26 participants to test their willingness to accept a shift in long term policy goals.
Koasidis, K., Koutsellis, T., Xexakis, G., Nikas, A., & Doukas, H. (2023). Understanding expectations from and capabilities of climate-economy models for measuring the impact of crises on sustainability. Journal of Cleaner Production, 414, 137585.
The multi-faceted emergencies of our time (recession, pandemics, and international conflict) can disrupt progress towards sustainable development goals (SDGs). While climate-economy models can show pathways out of these disruptions, numerous stakeholder-informed enhancements are required to navigate through the interconnected SDG landscape.
Van de Ven, D. J., Mittal, S., Gambhir, A., Lamboll, R., Doukas, H., Giarola, S., Hawkes, A., Koasidis, K., Koberle, A. C., McJeon, H., Perdana, S., Peters, G. P., Rogelj, J., Sognnaes, I., Vielle, M. & Nikas, A. (2023). A multi-model analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges. Nature Climate Change, 13(6).
The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero.
Shirov, A. A., Kolpakov, A. Y., Gambhir, A., Koasidis, K., Koberle, A. C., McWilliams, B., & Nikas, A. (2023). Stakeholder-driven scenario analysis of ambitious decarbonisation of the Russian economy. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition, 3, 100055.
Climate change mitigation entails different meanings for developed and developing countries. As a major emitting, high-income, developing economy that is largely dependent on hydrocarbons, Russia currently sits in the middle of the two groups, needing not only to drastically reduce emissions but also to ensure necessary economic growth to finance decarbonisation.
Jones, M. W., Peters, G. P., Gasser, T., Andrew, R. M., Schwingshackl, C., Gütschow, J., ... & Le Quéré, C. (2023). National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850. Scientific Data, 10(1), 155.
Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have made significant contributions to global warming since the pre-industrial period and are therefore targeted in international climate policy. There is substantial interest in tracking and apportioning national contributions to climate change and informing equitable commitments to decarbonisation.
Koasidis, K., Nikas, A., & Doukas, H. (2023). Why integrated assessment models alone are insufficient to navigate us through the polycrisis. One Earth, 6(3), 205-209.
The silver lining of global crises is that they provide windows of opportunity for transformation. However, integrated assessment models (IAMs) are failing to successfully navigate these windows. We argue that a transdisciplinary approach is required to chart sustainable pathways through the polycrisis.
Plötz, P., Wachsmuth, J., Sprei, F., Gnann, T., Speth, D., Neuner, F., & Link, S. (2023). Greenhouse gas emission budgets and policies for zero-Carbon road transport in Europe. Climate Policy, 23(3), 343-354.
Following the Paris Agreement, virtually all countries worldwide have committed themselves to undertaking efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Within the European Union (EU), the recent ‘Fit for 55’ policy package proposes ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies for all sectors as part of the EU's contribution to limiting global warming.
Perdana, S. & Vielle, M. (2023). Carbon border adjustment mechanism in the transition to net-zero emissions: collective implementation and distributional impacts. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, in press.
As an instrument to minimize carbon leakage, the effects and feasibility of Carbon Border Adjustments Mechanism (CBAM) will depend on multiple design options. While the EU has committed to introducing CBAM as part of its green climate deal, pursuing climate efforts to successfully limit global warming requires a collective implementation involving major emitters China and the US. This paper quantifies the distributional impacts of a joint CBAM implementation of in a climate alliance or a club of the EU, the US, and China.
Gambhir, A. (2023). Powering past coal is not enough. Nature Climate Change, 13, 117-118.
Modelled low-carbon pathways rarely incorporate processes reflecting social and political realities. Now two studies rise to this challenge by exploring the implications of a landmark initiative to phase out coal, showing that we need greater political ambition for faster transitions to keep a 1.5 °C outcome in sight.
Karamaneas, A., Koasidis, K., Frilingou, N., Xexakis, G., Nikas, A., & Doukas, H. (2023). A stakeholder-informed modelling study of Greece's energy transition amidst an energy crisis: the role of natural gas and climate ambition. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition, 3, 100049.
While fossil fuel prices soar during the 2022 global energy crisis, the European Union activates all available fossil-fuel levers and Greece still plans to use natural gas as a transition fuel for delignitisation, with strong concerns over potential exacerbation of energy poverty and hurdles to progress in climate action. This study assesses the trajectory of the Greek electricity mix and its reliance on natural gas under the current policy framework on the one hand, and an ambitious scenario aiming for complete decarbonisation by 2035 on the other.