Scientific publications
Sognnaes, I., Gambhir, A., Van de Ven, D.J., Nikas, A., Anger-Kraavi, A., Bui, H., Campagnolo, L., Delpiazzo, E., Doukas, H., Giarola, S., Grant, N., Hawkes, A., Koberle, A.C., Kolpakov, A., Mittal, S., Moreno, J., Perdana, S., Rogelj, J., Vielle, M., & Peters, G.P. (2021). A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts. Nature Climate Change, 11, 1055-1062.
Most of the integrated assessment modelling literature focuses on cost-effective pathways towards given temperature goals. Conversely, using seven diverse integrated assessment models, we project global energy CO2 emissions trajectories on the basis of near-term mitigation efforts and two assumptions on how these efforts continue post-2030.
Grant, N., Hawkes, A., Napp, T., & Gambhir, A. (2021). Cost reductions in renewables can substantially erode the value of carbon capture and storage in mitigation pathways. One Earth, 4(11), 1588-1601.
Köberle, A.C., Vandyck, T., Guivarch, C., Macaluso, N., Bosetti, V., Gambhir, A., Tavoni, M., & Rogelj, J. (2021). The cost of mitigation revisited. Nature Climate Change, 11, 1035-1045.
Estimates of economic implications of climate policy are important inputs into policy-making. Despite care to contextualize quantitative assessments of mitigation costs, one strong view outside academic climate economics is that achieving Paris Agreement goals implies sizable macroeconomic losses. Here, we argue that this notion results from unwarranted simplification or omission of the complexities of quantifying mitigation costs, which generates ambiguity in communication and interpretation.
Grant, N., Hawkes, A., Mittal, S., & Gambhir, A. (2021). The policy implications of an uncertain carbon dioxide removal potential. Joule, 5(10), 2593-2605.
Many low-carbon scenarios rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to meet decarbonization goals. The feasibility of large-scale CDR deployment is highly uncertain, and existing scenarios have been criticized for overreliance on CDR. We conduct an expert survey on the feasible potential for CDR via bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture and afforestation. We use the survey results to represent uncertainty in future CDR availability and explore the implications in an integrated assessment model.
Mohan, A., Geden, O., Fridahl, M., Buck, H. J., & Peters, G. P. (2021). UNFCCC must confront the political economy of net-negative emissions. One Earth, 4(10), 1348-1351.
Recent demands by developing countries, like India, that developed countries need to reach net-negative emissions, must be negotiated seriously under the UNFCCC. Failure to acknowledge that limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5°C leaves very little carbon budget for equitable redistribution risks further ambiguity on how to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals.
Breed, A. K., Speth, D., & Plötz, P. (2021). CO2 fleet regulation and the future market diffusion of zero-emission trucks in Europe. Energy Policy, 159, 112640.
Fuel economy regulation is a powerful instrument to reduce CO2 emissions of vehicles and has recently been extended to heavy-duty vehicles. In Europe, truck manufacturers are required to reduce the CO2 emissions of newly sold vehicles by 30% until 2030 compared to 2019/2020. Accordingly, several manufacturers have announced the introduction of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) such as battery electric or fuel cell trucks. However, the sales shares of zero emission trucks to meet the targets have not been analyzed in the literature yet.
Nikas, A., Skalidakis, S., Sorman, A. H., Galende-Sanchez, E., Koasidis, K., Serepas, F., Van de Ven, D.J., Moreno, J., Karamaneas, A., Koutsellis, T., Kanellou, E., & Doukas, H. (2021). Integrating integrated assessment modelling in support of the Paris Agreement: The I2AM PARIS platform. In 2021 12th International Conference on Information, Intelligence, Systems & Applications (IISA) (pp. 1-8). IEEE.
Joshi, S., Mittal, S., Holloway, P., Ramprasad Shukla, P., Ó Gallachóir, B., & Glynn, J. (2021). High resolution global spatiotemporal assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential for renewable electricity generation. Nature Communications 12, 5738.
Rooftop solar photovoltaics currently account for 40% of the global solar photovoltaics installed capacity and one-fourth of the total renewable capacity additions in 2018. Yet, only limited information is available on its global potential and associated costs at a high spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we present a high-resolution global assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential using big data, machine learning and geospatial analysis.
van de Ven, D. J., Westphal, M., Gonzalez‐Eguino, M., Gambhir, A., Peters, G., Sognnaes, I., ... & Clarke, L. The impact of US re‐engagement in climate on the Paris targets. Earth's Future, 9(9), e2021EF002077.
The Paris Agreement seeks to combine international efforts to keep global temperature increase to well-below 2°C. Whilst current ambitions in many signatories are insufficient to achieve this goal, optimism prevailed in the second half of 2020. Not only did several major emitters announce net-zero mitigation targets around mid-century, but the new Biden Administration immediately announced the U.S.’s re-entry into Paris and a net-zero goal for 2050. U.S.
Mandev, A., Plötz, P., & Sprei, F. (2021). The effect of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle charging on fuel consumption and tail-pipe emissions. Environmental Research Communications, 3(8), 081001.
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) have an electric motor and an internal combustion engine and can reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from transport. However, their environmental benefit strongly depends on the charging behaviour. Several studies have analysed the GHG emissions from upstream electricity production, yet the impact of individual charging behaviour on PHEV tail-pipe carbon emissions has not been quantified from empirical data so far.