Scientific publications
Giarola, S., Mittal, S., Vielle, M., Perdana, S., Campagnolo, L., Delpiazzo, E., Bui, H., Anger-Kraavi, A., Kolpakov, A., Sognnaes, I., Peters, G.P., Hawkes, A., Koberle, A., Grant, N., Gambhir, A., Nikas, A., Doukas, H., Moreno, J., & Van de Ven, D.J. (2021). Challenges in the harmonisation of global integrated assessment models: a comprehensive methodology to reduce model response heterogeneity. Science of the Total Environment, 783, 146861.
Harmonisation sets the ground to a solid inter-comparison of integrated assessment models. A clear and transparent harmonisation process promotes a consistent interpretation of the modelling outcomes divergences and, reducing the model variance, is instrumental to the use of integrated assessment models to support policy decision-making. Despite its crucial role for climate economic policies, the definition of a comprehensive harmonisation methodology for integrated assessment modelling remains an open challenge for the scientific community.
Lalas, D., Gakis, N., Mirasgedis, S., Georgopoulou, E., Sarafidis, Y., & Doukas, H. (2021). Energy and GHG Emissions Aspects of the COVID Impact in Greece. Energies, 14(7), 1955.
Le Quéré, C., Peters, G. P., Friedlingstein, P., Andrew, R. M., Canadell, J. G., Davis, S. J., ... & Jones, M. W. (2021). Fossil CO 2 emissions in the post-COVID-19 era. Nature Climate Change, 11(3), 197-199.
Five years after the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement, growth in global CO2 emissions has begun to falter. The pervasive disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic have radically altered the trajectory of global CO2 emissions. Contradictory effects of the post-COVID-19 investments in fossil fuel-based infrastructure and the recent strengthening of climate targets must be addressed with new policy choices to sustain a decline in global emissions in the post-COVID-19 era.
Galende-Sánchez, E., & Sorman, A. H. (2021). From consultation toward co-production in science and policy: A critical systematic review of participatory climate and energy initiatives. Energy Research & Social Science, 73, 101907.
In recent decades, co-production has become a cornerstone both in science and policy-making, motivating further collaboration between different actors. To scrutinize such participatory processes within the climate and energy fields, we conducted a critical systematic review of 183 records, which includes scientific publications, but also other initiatives coming from the public administration or the non-profit sector.
Jones, M. W., Andrew, R. M., Peters, G. P., Janssens-Maenhout, G., De-Gol, A. J., Ciais, P., ... & Le Quéré, C. (2021). Gridded fossil CO2 emissions and related O2 combustion consistent with national inventories 1959–2018. Scientific Data, 8(1), 1-23.
Quantification of CO2 fluxes at the Earth’s surface is required to evaluate the causes and drivers of observed increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Atmospheric inversion models disaggregate observed variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration to variability in CO2 emissions and sinks. They require prior constraints fossil CO2 emissions.
Doukas, H., & Anger-Kraavi, A. (2020). Editorial of special issue on transdisciplinary science in energy transitions: thinking outside strictly formalized modeling boxes. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 15(10-12), 453-454.
This special issue is devoted to research that touches on such critical policy questions while enhancing the transparency and legitimacy of the scientific processes in support of climate policymaking, as well as introducing innovative frameworks that improve the robustness of modeling outcomes against different types of uncertainties.
Johansson, D. J., Azar, C., Lehtveer, M., & Peters, G. P. (2020). The role of negative carbon emissions in reaching the Paris climate targets: The impact of target formulation in integrated assessment models. Environmental Research Letters, 15(12), 124024.
Global net-negative carbon emissions are prevalent in almost all emission pathways that meet the Paris temperature targets. In this paper, we generate and compare cost-effective emission pathways that satisfy two different types of climate targets. First, the common approach of a radiative forcing target that has to be met by the year 2100 (RF2100), and, second, a temperature ceiling target that has to be met over the entire period, avoiding any overshoot.
Sorman, A. H., Turhan, E., & Rosas Casals, M. (2020). Democratizing energy, energizing democracy: Central dimensions surfacing in the debate. Frontiers in Energy Research, 8, 499888.
This perspective piece sets out to contribute to the academic and practitioner debates around energy transitions and democracy initiatives in the age of a climate crisis. For tackling present-day energy challenges in a democratic, equitable and just manner, critical social science and humanities research on meaning and materialities, new actors and narratives, values and democracy is indispensable.
Nikas A., Gambhir A., Trutnevyte E., Koasidis K., Lund H., Thellufsen J.Z., Mayer D., Zachmann G., Miguel L.J., Ferreras-Alonso N., Sognnaes I., Peters G.P., Colombo E., Howells M., Hawkes A., van den Broek M., Van de Ven D.J., Gonzalez-Eguino M., Flamos A., & Doukas H. (2021). Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe. Energy, 215, 119153.
Europe’s capacity to explore the envisaged pathways that achieve its near- and long-term energy and climate objectives needs to be significantly enhanced. In this perspective, we discuss how this capacity is supported by energy and climate-economy models, and how international modelling teams are organised within structured communication channels and consortia as well as coordinate multi-model analyses to provide robust scientific evidence.
Babonneau, F., Bahn, O., Haurie, A., & Vielle, M. (2021). An Oligopoly Game of CDR Strategy Deployment in a Steady-State Net-Zero Emission Climate Regime. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 26, 969-984.
In this paper, we propose a simple oligopoly game model to represent the interactions between coalitions of countries in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies in a steady-state net-zero emission climate regime that could take place by the end of the twenty-first century. The emission quotas and CDR activities obtained in the solution of this steady-state model could then be used as a target for end-of-period conditions in a dynamic integrated assessment analysis studying the transition to 2100.